ARK Invest published an updated, open-source valuation model for Tesla on October 19, 2026, with an expected value of about $4,400 per share in 2031. ARK defines its bear and bull cases as the 25th and 75th percentile outcomes of a Monte Carlo simulation across 32 inputs, which land at roughly $3,300 and $5,000 a share. Its previous model, published in 2024, targeted $2,600 a share for 2029.
Robotaxis still dominate
ARK now expects robotaxis to make up about 80% of Tesla’s enterprise value in 2031, down from about 90% in its 2029 model, mainly because it expects Optimus robots to start contributing. Key figures from ARK’s base case for 2031:
- About 8.1 million robotaxis deployed, generating about $753 billion in ride-hail net revenue.
- About 10.2 million cars sold and $320 billion in EV revenue.
- About 1 million external Optimus robots sold, bringing in about $212 billion through robot-as-a-service revenue.
- About $1.45 trillion in total revenue, $902 billion in EBITDA and a $17.5 trillion market cap.
ARK’s Optimus forecast is far below Musk’s own guidance of 100 million to a billion units in 2031, and ARK says slower-than-expected robotaxi progress informed its more cautious timeline.
What changed in the model
The update adds an AI infrastructure line, assuming Tesla’s cumulative AI spending grows from about $7 billion at the end of 2025 to about $225 billion by the end of 2031, including the Terafab chip initiative with SpaceX. ARK dropped human-driven ride-hail, insurance and China robotaxi operations from the model, and now assumes Musk’s stock compensation fully vests within the valuation period. It also notes that Tesla Semi volume production began at Giga Nevada in September.
The model treats Tesla as a standalone company, but ARK says a SpaceX-Tesla merger could happen within five years and estimates the two together could generate $3.8 trillion in revenue by 2031. That adds to the merger talk around Tesla’s 2026 proxy.
The caveats
ARK says the main risk is a slower robotaxi ramp because of regulation or unexpected events, and its disclosures stress that the forecasts are hypothetical and reflect ARK’s own biases and long-term positive view of the company. The model is published on GitHub for anyone who wants to test the assumptions. Tesla reports Q3 results on Wednesday, October 21.
Source: ARK Invest.