SpaceX’s plan to retire Falcon 9 in favor of Starship is creating a problem for the U.S. Space Force, Politico reported on October 22.
What happened
The Space Force recently tried to book launches for three future satellite missions through its National Security Space Launch (NSSL) program. According to two people familiar with the missions, SpaceX declined to offer its services and no other launch company bid either. Two of the missions are for the Space Development Agency, which is building a large low-Earth-orbit constellation for data transport and missile warning and tracking. Details of the third mission and the planned launch dates weren’t disclosed. SpaceX did not respond to Politico’s request for comment.
What the Space Force says
Brig. Gen. Eric Zarybnisky, the Space Force’s acting portfolio acquisition executive for space access, played down the risk. “I wouldn’t say there [are] missions I’m worried about being able to fly,” he said, while acknowledging that “temporarily, there are some things we’ll need to work through” as new providers come online. He said the date of the last Falcon mission for the Space Force will depend on the satellite programs that already have launch contracts.
Context
- SpaceX accounted for about 85% of U.S. launches in 2025 and has won most NSSL task orders in both of the program’s lanes.
- The main alternatives are struggling: United Launch Alliance’s Vulcan was grounded earlier this year over solid rocket booster problems, and a Blue Origin New Glenn exploded on the company’s only Florida launch pad in May.
- Starship is built around “flat stack” payloads like Starlink, while most military satellites are designed for a larger, conventional payload bay.
- Newer medium-lift rockets from Rocket Lab, Stoke Space and Relativity haven’t yet flown successfully, and NSSL rules don’t let providers bid until they have.
Why it matters
SpaceX’s pivot to Starship, which it is also counting on for its double tower catch on Flight 15, leaves the Pentagon with few near-term options for medium-lift national security launches. Commercial satellite builders are facing the same squeeze for Falcon 9 rides after 2028.
Source: Politico.