SpaceX will post its third-quarter 2026 results after the market closes on Tuesday, October 20, and host an audio-only webcast at 3:30 p.m. CT (4:30 p.m. ET) on ir.spacex.com, also streamed on X at @SpaceX. We covered the earnings date announcement last week; here’s what analysts are looking for.
The consensus numbers
According to a FactSet consensus cited by MarketWatch:
- Revenue: about $12.87 billion, up from $7.81 billion in the second quarter.
- Net income: about $1.87 billion, compared with a $541 million loss last quarter.
- Adjusted earnings: 12 cents a share, versus an adjusted loss of 4 cents in Q2.
Investing.com describes this as what would be SpaceX’s first profitable quarter since its Nasdaq IPO in June, and says analysts expect AI segment revenue to pass Starlink connectivity revenue for the first time.
Spending and the lockup
SpaceX spent $18.4 billion on capital investments in Q2, most of it on AI, and CFO Bret Johnsen has said Q3 and Q4 capex should be comparable. Investing.com reports analysts project roughly $19.6 billion in Q3 capex and negative free cash flow of about $11.6 billion.
The stock is also facing a supply overhang. Up to 1.3 billion previously restricted shares become freely tradable two days after the report, with another 328 million unlocking on October 24. Shares slipped 1.4% to $145.92 in Tuesday morning trading, per Investing.com, and options were pricing in a move of about 7.8% either way after the print.
What else investors want to hear
In August, Elon Musk laid out goals that include launching data centers in space in 2027 and reaching $1 trillion in revenue by 2030, so updates on those targets will be watched closely. Investors are also looking for details on Musk’s pledge to give one SpaceX share to every child in America, which so far hasn’t said how the shares would be distributed. Recent analyst moves include Evercore ISI raising its target to $275, Barclays starting coverage at Overweight with a $254 target, and Pivotal Research lifting its target to $230.
Tesla follows with its own Q3 report on Wednesday, October 21.
Sources: MarketWatch, Investing.com, SpaceX Investor Relations.